Merry Belated Christmas For the Red Sox

It’s been awhile since my last post but whether you think it or not, this is a HUGE deal and I can’t, not post about it. So the Red Sox acquire Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney for Josh Reddick, Miles Head, and Raul Alcantra. This is a great deal for the Red Sox who are going through major changes this offseason, trying to revamp the team to reach the playoffs and beyond in 2012. In my mind they got Bailey cheap due to a flooded relief arms market. Bailey is, when healthy, a top closer in the league and I would expect this to continue in Boston through 2014 at least, as he is under Sox control until then. The Sox recently acquired Mark Melancon from the Astros for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland. Melancon will now likely be the setup man for Bailey. The combination of deals fills Papelbon’s spot and Bard’s spot in the pen. (Pap left for the Phillies and Bard is likely moving to the starting rotation.) This will give the Red Sox a very inexpensive bullpen, yet a fairly decent one at this point in the offseason. Now they may have the money to go get a top starting pitcher, or a quality one or two, and also possibly get another right fielder, although less likely. Sweeney and Ryan Kalish will likely be competing for right field time in the Sox lineup, Sweeney is probably not as good as Josh Reddick, but he is serviceable. Reddick was a top prospect for a while and did alright at the major league level, but his stock was hurt by most people’s thoughts that he couldn’t be a consistent player. He ripped things up when he started playing in 2011 but then proceeded to cool off. Alcantra and Head are both high upside, high risk single-A prospects from the Sox fairly deep farm system.  Weiland was a solid, not great pitching prospect near ready for the big leagues and Lowrie is a high upside, injury prone, infielder who could be a steal in the Melancon deal. Overall I think this is a huge win for the Sox. People are now speculating they could go hard after Cubs ace Matt Garza since they didn’t give up any top prospects and are owed compensation from Theo Epstein leaving still. Either way I like the deals, all solid players involved for both sides in both trades. Athletics seem to be loading up on prospects after the Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and now Andrew Bailey deals.  My thoughts on the Cahill and Gonzalez deals in short: good for the Diamondbacks who received Cahill, and Nationals who received Gonzalez. I think that the A’s got good prospects in return and will have a bright future, but the Diamondbacks and Nationals got very good pitchers who make them much better now and in the future as both starters are still young. Trevor Cahill is going to help Arizona win the NL west I’ll say that now. Bailey will help the Sox compete in a still loaded AL East, and Gonzalez will help the Nationals stay in contention in a tough NL East. The A’s could have just helped 3 teams win divisions in 2012, unlikely, but definitely a possibility now.

Darvish

I feel obligated to talk about the recent news that the Texas Rangers have won the right to negotiate with Yu Darvish. Darvish a standout 25 year old pitcher from Japan is now in all likelihood going to be a part of the Rangers opening day roster for 2012 and has a real shot at being the starter for that first game. The Rangers submitted a $51.7 million bid just to negotiate with him. The last big name pitcher to come over from Japan, Daisuke Matsuzaka, had mixed results with the Boston Red Sox, definitely some success, but overall was inconsistent and had his struggles staying healthy (he’s on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery at the moment). I find Darvish to be similar in some ways, but definitely different in others. Both Matsuzaka and Darvish have a vast repitour of pitches, and both were super successful in Japan. I think that Darvish will be better than Matsuzaka in regards to pure “stuff,” but the thing that will make or break him is how he handles the new environment. MLB hitters are the best in the world and Darvish will no doubt have less success than he did in Japan. I only question Darvish’s mental makeup because I really don’t know a lot about it. Matsuzaka didn’t seem to have the killer instinct to win and consistently be dominant. He seemed to get rattled easily, so he would be dominant, but when things didn’t go his way, things unraveled quickly. I think both guys are #2 starters on a good team, not ace quality but could be close. I like Darvish to be more successful than Matsuzaka, but I don’t expect him to be the answer for the Rangers to win the World Series. I would have liked their chances better with Wilson staying, but I think this definitely helps replacing their ace. The market is thinning so other than Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt there really isn’t a top of the rotation guy to sign. Gio Gonzalez was an option through trade, and possibly may be still, although now a LOT less likely. They had some options and chose the Darvish route; I think it may prove to be the best option they have at this very moment. The negotiations should prove to be interesting and take up a lot of baseball news until it’s done.

Latos Is Seeing Red

So recently I wrote an article on my top 15 MLB starting pitchers under 25. Mat Latos was #5 on that list. Not to say I’m 100% accurate on that, but he is very good no doubt. He was just acquired from the Padres by the Reds. You would think getting a young pitcher who has already had success in the big leagues would be a good thing, but a lot of people aren’t seeing it that way. Maybe that’s because of San Diego’s monster haul in the deal. Not only did they acquire proven starting pitcher and former all-star Edison Volquez, but they also acquired 1^st baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Granal, and pitching prospect Brad Boxberger. This package of players is no joke, most people know Volquez is an immediate help to the starting rotation (a replacement of sorts for Latos), yet should have plenty of years ahead of him to contribute as well. Yasmani Grandal is a top switch hitting catching prospect who in a lot of opinion is going to be a very good major league catcher at the least, he can really hit. Yonder Alonso also is a very good hitter and seemed to have nowhere to go being that the Reds have perennial MVP contender Joey Votto, although he also was a top prospect and should be a very good major league player at some point. This also bears asking the question of what happens to Anthony Rizzo as he is a 1^st baseman who was acquired by the Padres in the deal for Adrian Gonzalez, this may put him on the trade block, or maybe send him to the minors, or maybe they give Alonso a change of scenery and put him in left field possibly. Finally Brad Boxberger is a solid pitching prospect likely slated for bullpen duty in San Diego. This trade fills many spots for the Padres and in my opinion they are huge winners, all these guys are fairly close if not ready for the majors. People argue Latos’ potential, some saying he’s a future #1 some saying he’s a #2. Either way, getting Volquez who’s probably a strong #3 plus a good bullpen arm would help, but what makes this deal great is they also got a future catcher and 1^st baseman. The Padres may be contenders soon and this trade may do it. I think the Reds were crazy to give up that much for Latos, I’d say they’d be crazy to give up that much for just about any one player, but if Latos can be their ace for years to come, and the prospects they shipped off don’t pan out, then I will say I was wrong. I just don’t know what the Reds were thinking.

Twins!

So the Twins supposedly offered Michael Cuddyer a 3 year $25 million deal to stay with the club but Cuddyer took a 3 year deal for $31.5 million from the Rockies. I don’t think you can blame a player for taking the best offer on the table, but I am somewhat surprised Cuddyer left for the Rockies over $5 million. The Twins however, have seemed to replace Cuddyer quite adequately by signing Josh Willingham to a 3 year $21 million deal. Comparing the two I say defensively I’d rather have Cuddyer as he is more solid and versatile, he can play all over the diamond really. Offensively it’s fairly clear over their careers that Willingham is a bigger power threat, and over his career has also been better at getting on base. Cuddyer would seem to be a little faster and strike out less, but overall I think they are very close in who would be the better player. The Twins made an offer that wasn’t accepted and I believe were smart to go out and get a very good player of very similar ability for $3.5 million a year less than they guy they let walk signed for. If there are two free agents that I think are very nearly on the same level it would be Cuddyer and Willingham, so I think the Twins made a good decision to save some money and not pay more than they felt a player was worth. I am a little surprised that these two didn’t get a little more money though, as they signed 3 year deals at 32 years of age, you would assume they will be solid for the duration of the contract. I guess JD Drew ruined teams on giving players like this more money. (I’m only joking, sort of) The free agent market is slimming, but there are still many moves to go before spring training no question about that. Let ‘em keep on coming.

Top 15 Starting Pitchers Under 25

I have ranked (IN MY OPINION) the top 15 starting pitchers in the MLB UNDER the age of 25, at this moment. They are listed below. Feel free to argue, and the stats I’ve given aren’t necessarily to prove my point, just stats I feel are useful when looking at starting pitching. The stats are all from the 2011 season. I don’t think there are too many surprises, but essentially I think this, in order, is who I’d want starting games for my team if I had to choose somebody under 25. Yes King Felix is now too old for this list, and I’ve taken into account stats, their physical abilities and makeups, and what I predict for them. A few explanations: I added two spots at the end for Strasburg and Moore because they really haven’t had enough experience in the majors to say much about them. Plus Strasburg already having had Tommy John, I didn’t want to put someone on the list that hadn’t even pitched close to a full season and was this unproven, but what they have shown is ridiculous, so they are bonus spots. All these pitchers are under 25 as of 12-11-2011. Tell me if I missed someone or if you don’t think someone deserves to be on here. I probably won’t agree but do it anyway.

(Stats-ERA/KperBB/QualityStarts)

1.       Clayton Kershaw 2.28/4.59/25

2.       Trevor Cahill 4.16/1.75/21

3.       Brett Anderson 4.00/2.44/7**

4.       Daniel Hudson 3.49/3.38/21

5.       Mat Latos 3.47/2.98/20

6.       Michael Pineda 3.74/3.15/19

7.       Jeremy Hellickson 2.95/1.63/20

8.       Madison Bumgardner 3.21/4.15/23

9.       Jhoulys Chacin 3.62/1.72/18

10.   Neftali Feliz 2.74/1.80/0*

11.   Mike Leake 3.86/3.11/18

12.   Aroldis Chapman 3.60/1.73/0*

13.   Ivan Nova 3.70/1.72/16

14.   Rick Porcello 4.75/2.26/19

15.   Zach Britton 4.61/1.56/13

Bonus: Stephen Strasburg 1.50/12.00/2**

Bonus: Matt Moore 2.89/5.00/1***

*Was not a starter but expected to be one in 2012

**Season drastically shortened by injury

***Late season call up, very limited action